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Another round of severe weather possible Thursday

Thursday's Outlook:

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening. Right now, the threat doesn't appear to be as widespread as the thunderstorm event Tuesday night was. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat looks to be low at this time, but an isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Timing:

The hi-res computer model seems to be the one model picking up on the thunderstorm threat/development the best right now. The HRRR (high-resolution rapid refresh model) has clusters of thunderstorms moving through SE Minnesota and NE Iowa just after 7 p.m Thursday evening and moving out of the area around 10-11 p.m.

Threat Levels:

Right now, confidence isn't extremely high for widespread severe level threats. Only the HRRR (high-resolution rapid refresh model) is picking up on the thunderstorm potential for Thursday. The other convective (thunderstorm) models we use for forecasting thunderstorms aren't as bullish on storm development Thursday evening. The main threats we're are looking at Thursday evening will be strong winds and isolated large hail.

Week Outlook:

Temperatures will stay in the middle and lower 80s through Sunday with chances for showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Highs will warm into the upper 80s and lower 90s on Monday with mostly sunny skies. Rain chances return Tuesday and Wednesday next week.

More details to come about the severe potential for Thursday.

Nick

Nick Jansen

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